A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
